Yesterdays information by Orange Netherlands about its turnover allows for an estimation of the value and number of Premium SMS in the Netherlands. Starting with the press release we know that:
- the quarterly turnover was € 124 million euro leading to an estimated total turnover of € 457 million in 2003,
- more than 10 percent of Orange's turnover is related to data income, resulting in an amount of € 45 million data turnover in 2003,
- about 75 % of the data income is SMS income, resulting in € 34 million SMS turnover for Orange Netherlands,
- Orange has a 10 percent market share, resulting in an estimated € 340 million SMS turnover for 2003 or approximately 523 million SMS's in the Netherlands,
- two thirds of the SMS's are coming from pre-paid users, resulting in 345 million SMS messages for a value of € 224 million,
- two thirds of the premium SMS's are not delivered by the operator itself but by third parties.
The resulting conservative estimate is that 228 million SMS e-money payments will be made in 2003 for a value of € 150 million. These payments qualify as e-money payments, as they are being paid out of the electronic money value issued by the mobile operators and to companies other than the operators themselves.
Last years estimate was a value of € 65 million and 100 million e-money SMS-messages. As can be expected with successfull retail payment mechanisms, the current growth percentage for e-money SMS-payments is 230 %. Consequently it may be expected that in 2004 the number of Dutch SMS/e-money payments will outnumber the total number of paper-based and Chipknip payments in the Netherlands.
So do I hear anyone claiming that e-money will not work ? Or that it is an obscure development ?